Oriental Securities (600958) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Self-employed Turnaround

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Oriental Securities (600958) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Self-employed Turnaround

Event: The company achieved operating income of 136 in the first three quarters of 2019.

07 million yuan, an increase of 107 in ten years.

25%; Net profit 17.

410,000 yuan, an increase of 92 in ten years.

67%; basic profit income is 0.

25 yuan, an annual increase of 92.

31%; average ROE is expected to increase by 1 per year.

57ppts to 3.

31%.

Turn your losses into profits.

Affected by the recovery in the equity market and the favorable bond market, the company’s net operating income (excluding investment in associates and group photos) for the first three quarters was 25.

710,000 yuan, compared to -6 in the same period last year.

7.1 billion yuan.

In the first three quarters, the proportion of self-operated / brokerage / investment bank / asset management / credit business income accounted for 19% / 8% / 5% / 10% / 6% respectively (-10% / 16% / 12% / 30 in the same period last year% / 11%).

In the first three quarters, about 50% of the company’s performance was contributed by commodity transactions. The changes in this part of the business penetrated and had a high degree of uncertainty.

The decline in asset management business narrowed.

Dongzheng Asset Management’s proactive management capabilities improved, and the company’s asset management business fee increased by 7 in the third quarter.

1% to 50,000 yuan, the decline in the first three quarters narrowed to 32.

3% (mid-45%).

According to the company’s disclosure, the proportion of active management accounts for 98%.

70%, the impact of the industry’s compression 杭州桑拿网 channel business is expected to reduce the company’s future asset management business revenue impact.

Investment banking faces an inflection point.

In the third quarter, the company’s investment banking business income reached 7.

1.8 billion, down 8 a year.

4%.

The company’s total underwriting amount of shares in the first three quarters was 144 billion, of which 10 was underwriting IPO.

27 ppm, an average of 25% over ten years, and the number of underwriters was two, which was the same as the same period last year.

Dongfang Citigroup was qualified by the Securities and Futures Commission, and its September performance was flawed, and its operating income for the month was 4141.

10,000 yuan, the net profit is -23.

50,000 yuan.

The company’s traditional advantage investment banking business faces an inflection 南京桑拿论坛 point.

Credit business risks are controllable.

In the first three quarters, the company’s credit business increased slightly by 6% to 7.

80,000 yuan, the credit business income in the third quarter decreased by 19.

3% to 26.

8 billion.

Internal equity pledge risks occurred frequently throughout the year, and the company’s credit impairment losses were accrued9.

USD 3.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 872%, accounting for about 45% of net profit before tax, which will interfere with net profit and ROE. Maintain “overweight” rating and maintain target price of 12.

83 yuan.

In the first three quarters of the company’s revenue, net profit increased significantly, self-operated business contributed a higher flexibility, higher than expected.

Other businesses, mainly commodity trading, contributed about 50% of the company’s revenue this year. This business has potential uncertainties. Therefore, we adjusted the company’s 2019-21 net profit forecast to 2.4 billion / 3 billion / 3.4 billion ((Previous estimate was 1.9 billion / 3.4 billion / 3.6 billion).

To maintain the “overweight” level, follow 1.

62 x PB, maintain target price of 12.

83 yuan.

Risk reminder: market fluctuations, asset management business fee income continues to reorganize