CYTS (600138)： What marginal changes have taken place in the CYTS at the current point in time？
CYTS (600138): What marginal changes have taken place in the CYTS at the current point in time?
Due to the continuous flow of passenger traffic in Shuangzhen, the arrival of tickets from Wubei Gubei in 18 years, the running-in period with Everbright University was longer than expected, and the delay in the distribution of Gubei Water Town for many times, the company’s size has replaced history or levels at the end of 18 years.
However, at the current point in time, we believe that the above four estimated suppression factors have improved since the beginning of 19, and the growth and governance of the dual towns are expected to continue to improve. It is recommended to pay attention!
The expected difference is one: The market believes that Wuzhen ‘s ticket sales in 19 years may be inclined due to the reduced tickets, but the actual attractions are driven by the extension of the exhibition and the ticket attempts to rise without falling.
1) Wuzhen’s Dongzha Tickets have been reduced by 8 in 18Q3 due to the drop in tickets for scenic spots.
4%, the joint ticket price is reduced by 5%, so the market for Wuzhen 19 year passenger price is still holding unchanged expectations.
However, according to the data of the Spring Festival in 19, the passenger flow in Wuzhen increased by 3 as well.
54%, revenue increased by 3.
92%, the customer unit price realized zero growth in ten years.
The level of 38% is better than market expectations. We believe that it is mainly due to the increase in unit price driven by the first-phase project of the Internet Conference that Wuzhen operated in 19 years.
The passenger flow growth rate during the Spring Festival in Gubei Water Town dropped 8.
51%, but also due to the nature of leisure and vacation, the proportion of non-ticket revenues such as hotels has increased, revenue has remained flat for many years, and the unit price of passengers has gradually increased by nearly 8.
In the medium and long term, do we think Wuzheng guest unit price 2019?
20 years in the first phase of the Internet Conference, 2020?
Driven by the Phase 2 project of the Internet Conference in 2022, the revenue share of convention, exhibition, high-end hotels and catering is expected to continue to expand. It is expected to increase from 45% in 2017 to 53% in 2021.Performance growth.
2) In terms of incentive performance, 3,600 employees in Wuzhen have raised their initial salaries by 10% against the current trend.
25%, and Chen Xianghong’s core management team’s “performance incentive bonus” in 19 years does not rule out the possibility of increase. We believe that Wuzhen’s current growth and governance are expected to usher in improvements in 19 years.
3) Puyuan is expected to open in late 19 or early 20, with large investment, which is also expected to bring performance increase.
Expected difference two: The market believes that the company and Everbright are running slowly and difficult to understand the utility. However, at the end of 18 years, China Youth Travel Service has successfully implemented executive and board renewal, and moved into three new Everbright leaders. In 19 years, the relationship between the two sides has been further strengthened.Support efforts to further cash in.
Since the company was transferred to China Everbright on January 5, 2018, the two parties have been slow to implement direct management. Therefore, the market can control the controlling shareholder Everbright in terms of management, capital, and resources.cautious.
However, after nearly a year of running-in, the company has successfully implemented the re-election of the board of directors to supplement 3 Everbright leaders on December 27, 18, and 深圳夜生活 the president has been replaced by Qiu Wenhe, the leader of the deepening reform team of Everbright Group, and has started direct management in 2019.
We believe that the major shareholders’ support for the realization of the budget has gradually come into effect, opening up the company’s growth space.
Expected difference three: The market believes that the passenger flow of Gubei Water Town may have reached expectations, but we believe that the current main factor is traffic rather than the product itself. It is expected that passenger flow may continue to continue in 2020 under the synergistic effect of the improvement of the large traffic and Universal Studios.increase.
The merger of the 10% equity transfer of Jingneng has been completed this year, and the company is expected to enjoy more growth dividends.
1) Gubei Water Town received about 400 in the mature period of the initial design period?
5 million person-times, but in 2018, while still exceeding 3 million person-times, passenger flow has been slightly smaller for 4 consecutive quarters.
We think the main reason is that the current one-way driving time to Gubei Water Town in Beijing is still 2?
As for transportation hubs, the company has planned to widen roads at the end of easily congested roads, which is expected to be completed in 2020, and the Miyun section of the Beijing-Shenzhen high-speed railway is also expected to open to traffic at the end of 2020, making it more convenient for tourists to travel.
The opening of the park in early 2021 will promote the overall growth of tourists in Beijing, and the Gubei Water Town, where related content and IP complement each other, will help to further enjoy the bonus of tourist growth.
2) In terms of equity, the 10% equity of Gubei Water Town transferred by Jingneng has identified the consortium formed by the company and Jiawei Shijie as the final transferee, and is expected to gradually obtain the possibility of government approval.
In addition, the company has also expanded its Wuyuan source, and launched a number of asset-light projects such as Mount Jiuhuang.
In the future, with the support of Everbright, the company’s expected advantages in terms of funds and resources, the long-term goal of becoming a world-class travel service provider.
Investment advice: Buy-A investment rating.
In the medium and long-term perspective of the company’s dual towns, there is still old growth potential + promotion of travel agencies to reduce losses + large share growth after the transfer of equity + asset-light extension, the company’s net profit attributable to mothers is expected to be 6 in 2018-20.
610,000 yuan, the corresponding PE is 17 respectively.
9x / 15.
3x / 13.
1x, estimated to have a high safety margin, given a 12-month target price of 20.
Risk reminders: 1) Macroeconomic downturn; 2) Double-town passenger flow is less than expected; 3) Travel agency business loss is less than expected; 4) Risk of unsuccessful transfer.